Monday, June 1, 2009

Time to tally the books.

Time to tally the books. I started this blog at the end of January 2009. During this time, I offered specific opinions on 28 stocks. On 11 occasions, I expressed the opinion that the stock was undervalued and on 17 occasions, I said that the stock, at the then current price, was overvalued. The results shown below are not time weighted; the returns are actuals for whatever period of time shown.

Undervalued at Time of Blog Entry

TickerDate of BlogPrice$Opinion05/29/09 Price$Profit/Loss %
TKC05/17/09$12.25long$12.673.43%
CHKP05/03/09$23.63long$23.30-1.40%
MCRS04/26/09$20.61long$25.9025.67%
ENDP03/22/09$16.79long$16.07-4.29%
WDC03/15/09$17.21long$24.5842.82%
ADP03/08/09$33.28long$38.0014.18%
TNH02/18/09$125.26long$123.73-1.22%
CSCO02/12/09$17.04long$18.518.63%
CSGS02/08/09$15.47long$13.66-11.70%
RHI02/08/09$18.22long$21.1115.86%
EME01/28/09$20.72long$21.825.31%
Average



8.84%


Overvalued at Time of Blog Entry

TickerDate of BlogPrice$Opinion05/29/09 Price$Profit/Loss %
NFLX04/13/09$46.95short$38.5421.82%
BAX02/28/09$58.05short$49.8216.52%
AAP02/08/09$33.63short43.42-22.55%
AEO02/08/09$9.64short$14.51-33.56%
BBBY02/08/09$24.00short$27.87-13.89%
BF.B02/08/09$48.18short$44.797.57%
CLC02/08/09$32.82short$28.5415.00%
CREE02/08/09$21.84short$30.20-27.68$
EW02/08/09$61.10short$63.50-3.78%
IDC02/08/09$24.42short$23.434.23%
ESI02/08/09$128.87short$90.5542.32%
MKTAY02/08/09$22.81short$22.292.33%
NKE02/08/09$48.68short$55.11-11.67%
PAYX02/08/09$26.93short$27.17-0.88%
RTN02/08/09$47.80short$44.696.96%
COL02/08/09$38.90short$42.33-8.10%
STRA02/08/09$222.04short$179.4423.74%
Average



1.08%

Overall, my longs did reasonably well returning an average of 8.84% during the period. The shorts remained in positive territory by posting a return of 1.08%. The best long (WDC) returned 42.82% whereas the worst of the longs (CSGS) lost 11.70%. The best performing short was my call on ESI which returned 42.32%. The worst performer in this category is AEO which lost 33.56%.

Compared to the overall market, these returns do not look so bad.

Disclosure: At the time of writing this blog entry, I am long CHKP and ENDP. Since January, I have traded MCRS, CSCO and EME.
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